No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture. That precedent may not survive this year's race.

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim's documentary You Can See Everything is tracking toward one of the more consequential moments in Oscar history. Released by A24 on October 16, the film documents Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she began serving her prison sentence. It has grossed nearly $80 million domestically through its fourth weekend, according to Gold Derby, with a 96 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes.

The film now sits at No. 8 in Best Picture odds on Gold Derby, with an 84.5 percent probability of earning a nomination. No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture in the Academy's nearly century-long history. A24 is campaigning the film in 11 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Documentary Feature, and Best Supporting Actress for Amanda Seyfried.

There are limits to the campaign. The Directors Guild of America ruled in October that Fielder and Oppenheim are ineligible for its feature film directing prize and may only compete in its documentary category. DGA recognition in the feature category has historically tracked closely with Best Picture. The film is similarly excluded from Golden Globes feature competition. The absence from these guild categories removes two of the more reliable precursor signals in the race.

Still, the momentum is real. Gold Derby gives the film a 63.6 percent chance in Best Director, 68.7 percent in Best Film Editing, and 92.3 percent in Best Documentary Feature. One unnamed Oscar voter told Gold Derby: "At this point, it's too big to fail."

The Odyssey remains the Best Picture frontrunner heading into the December precursor season. The question now is whether a documentary can sustain its current position long enough to earn the first Best Picture nomination of its kind.